3 Valuation Inflection Points for Startups: Don’t Copy Calacanis

Calacanis

Serial entrepreneur Jason Calacanis

In a recent update on LinkedIn Jason Calacanis recommended raising money on the promise of an idea, before a company launches its product. He reasons that prior to launch an investor cannot discount your valuation based on sluggish historical performance. The valuation will be based on how well you can sell your idea. I recently caught up with a classmate from UCLA Anderson and told him the exact opposite in regards to raising money for his own startup. In his case he was better off meeting with investors once he was generating revenues and could validate his businesses value proposition.

There are three basic valuation inflection points for any early stage company and each one typically increases the price investors are willing to pay in order to back the business.

Those inflection points are:

–        Pre-revenue

–        Revenue generating

–        Cash flow break even

Valuation Inflection Points

Valuations increase as a company moves towards cash flow break even

Since investors are looking to minimize the risk they are taking the more you prove your model works, the higher the price an investor will pay for equity in that business. This is particularly true if you have never raised investment capital before and do not have a record of exists like Calacanis.

Calacanis can champion his new company, Inside.com to potential investors because he is widely known throughout the VC community and already has a string of A players who have baked his other startups such as Mahalo. Because of his persona and reputation a bigger perceived risk for an investor is not having a chance to invest in the business at all. The assumption here is that Calacanis knows what he is doing and a pre-launch valuation will only increase from this point forward. This is exactly the perception Calacanis wants to create but there are very few entrepreneurs who have that kind of credibility.

As for my Anderson classmate, that will certainly not be the case. While he has great industry experience, because he has not personally raised capital he is much better generating some degree of revenue, even if it is small amount, simply to move his business from the pre-revenue, to revenue generating and thus lower the perceived risk

All the other advise Calacanis offers in his update is relevant for an entrepreneur, no matter how seasoned. There are no hard and fast rules for what a company is worth prior to being cash flow breakeven. Basically a business is worth whatever you can convince an investor to pay for it. This requires the founder to quell the fears of risk while talking up the opportunity. Since there are hundreds of vehicles where an institution or individual can invest their money, and seasoned investors are typically cynical by nature, it is highly unlikely a first time founder will raise any capital merely on the promise of an idea. In that case you are better off showing them the color of your money especially if the barriers to revenue generation are minimal.

Kluge Interactive Home Page

Kluge Interactive’s recently redesigned and fully responsive website

Calacanis finishes his update with invitation for Lead and Front End developers in LA for his new business. I’d welcome a conversation if he likes what he sees at Kluge.

As for my friend Roger, I’m sure we will be hearing more about his business in the months to come.

When Raising Venture Capital Look for an Emotional Tie to Seal the Deal

Stanford men in blazers

Experience has shown that a strong emotional tie to a deal will help more than any other factor when raising venture funding.

Entrepreneurs spend a lot of time and effort tracking performance, measuring sales traction and predicting growth in an effort to win over outside investors. However, it is the emotional bond an entrepreneur cultivates with their potential investor that helps close a deal.

Ask any venture firm or accelerator which investments get done in their shop and they will tell you the deals that come through their personal network. At Kline Hawkes & Co, the venture firm where I worked for 14 years, the “personal relationship” deals comprised approximately 90% of the entire portfolio. In fact, at most shops it is only the relationship deals that get properly vetted. This highlights how crucial it is for you to work your own network when approaching an investor.

Just because you do not personally know any of the partners at a fund does not prevent you from accessing their extended network. Most partners have enormous pools of advisors, mentors and friends anyone of which can make an introduction on your behalf.

A warm introduction will give you immediate credibility in the investor’s eyes but the entrepreneur will still have to work to forge a direct emotional tie. What forges this bond between the entrepreneur and investor can vary: typically, the connection will stem from something the investor and entrepreneur shares whether that be the same college or fraternity, a love of mountain climbing or surfing, children who attend the same school or ballet class or similar career paths. All these factors can be the catalyst that forges a deeper understanding and mutual respect between the two prospective parties.

sp_patrollers

I once had an investor call me in regards to a background check on a start-up he was looking to back. I was very familiar with the company having advised and worked as a consultant for the founder for a number of years. While the founder was extremely competent across a number of disciplines he had confided in me that he would like to identify a capable CEO who could take care of the day to day operations so that he could focus on building out his SaaS platform and manage his team of engineers. Having worked closely with the founder I was in total agreement and felt the sooner he could bring on a seasoned leader the better it would be for the entire business.

While not wanting to dampen the VC’s enthusiasm for investing in the start-up, I did suggest that some of the investment capital should be used to build out the management team and bring in a seasoned leader. The VC did not see the necessity of such a move. In fact he was keen to keep the founder in charge of the business. I found this a little odd until I remembered the VC was an engineer earlier in his career. The VC could picture himself running such a business some day in the future.

In this situation the bond between the VC and the founder was their career paths which became the catalyst for a speedy and successful investment. Eventually a CEO was brought in, but not until the founder began building out his next big idea.

Elvis Festival

When approaching investors it is important for an entrepreneur to make the effort to learn as much about the person sitting across the table from them as they can. An entrepreneur should not approach a pitch as though it is an interrogation. They will earn little credit by divulging everything about their company in as short a time as possible. This approach is likely to cause more harm than good and will make an entrepreneur come across as too eager and transparent to win the VC’s respect.

 Dog and Owner

A founder should ask probing questions whenever possible and make reference to milestones or achievements in a VC’s careers. Knowledge about the investor’s family can go a long way as can an interest in the books they read and the hobbies they pursue. When making these references don’t be afraid to probe further to share and exchange stories about the things in life that you both are passionate about. The chances are, if you share their passions, you can convince them you have the right stuff to build a successful business, just like them.

Where to Find Venture Funding in Southern California

money-and-magnifying-glass-in-hand--business-background

Over the past several years there have been a plethora of incubators and accelerators springing up all over southern California and particularly on the west side of Los Angeles. Along with these institutions there have been an assortment of listing, news and publication services that can keep you up to date on events that are happening around town.

Should you subscribe to Digita LA or TechZulu or SoCalTech you will see that there is some kind of networking event, panel discussion or fast pitch taking place practically everyday of the week. Venture is driven by relationships and these are great places to hear new ideas and meet investors, although probably not the best place to whip out your business plan.

While you can certainly hand out your business card, and hopefully receive one in return – providing the VC hasn’t “run out” – that is no guarantee they will read your business plan when you follow up the next day or even schedule a meeting with you. Typically, to sit down with an investor you have to be vetted through their network and have an idea that meets their investment criteria, which is typically fairly rigorous. When I was at Kline Hawkes & Co we would receive approximately 1,500 business plans a year meet with about 200 of them and invest in about four.

How you get referred into these shops is a subject for another post. I can certainly help make an introduction, but you should do your homework first and figure out which accelerator, incubator or VC would be best suited for your big idea.

Here is a list of useful resources to help you in your search:

News & Resources

SoCal Tech

Angel List

Networking, Events & Community

LAVA (Los Angeles Venture Association)

DigitalLA

TechZulu 

Built in LA

Employment/Development Resources

Co Founders Lab

Directory Listing

Represent LA 

Backing the Jockey and Not the Horse

mr_horse_jockey_470_470x352

“So are there any other tips you can give when pitching VC’s?” The question was posed by Nolan Simons, an LMU student from Professor David Choi’s Business Incubation class.

I was invited along with Kluge’s CEO, Arturo Perez, to listen to five companies from the class pitch their ideas. It was our job to take notes and provide feedback and I was giving Nolan some advice on what investors like to see in a founder. Nolan was getting ready to raise money for his company, Revita Ink and I thought his business had a lot of potential.

Typically VC’s look to back the jockey and not the horse.” I noted. It was a turn of phrase that is often used by venture investors and I have heard it many times over the 14 years I’ve worked in the business. I explained to Nolan that investors like to see a team and especially founders who have done it before; entrepreneurs who understand the industry and the needs of the customers and who can provide a solution that is so beneficial people are willing to pay for it.

Launching a company is so challenging and the obstacles so numerous that investors will pay a premium to a founder who has been around the block and knows what it takes to build a business from scratch.

On the other end of the enterprise spectrum, the opposite is true. When it comes to Warren Buffet he believes “Good jockeys will do well on good horses, but not on broken-down nags. Buffet adds, “I’ve said many times that when a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.”

There are two important elements that can help explain these opposing views. The businesses that Warren Buffet buys are enormous and directly affected by the macro conditions of the economy, whereas venture investors are typically exploiting niches or new, “green field” opportunities that have not previously existed or been fully explored. Businesses that are on the wane are known as “sunset businesses”. In Buffet’s case they were furniture manufacturing companies based in the U.S. that were getting hammered by the competition overseas. It didn’t matter how brilliant management was, they couldn’t stop the macro trend the entire industry was undergoing.

Secondly, a start-up  is much more nimble than a billion dollar manufacturing enterprise. If a particular strategy, product or service is not generating the desired results, a start-up can quickly pivot until they discover what works. These pivots must be quick and concise because a start-up won’t have long to discover what their customers want before it runs out of money. And this is precisely the expertise investors are looking for when funding disruptive businesses.

Mind you, VC’s are looking for both: talented, capable and experienced founders who are exploiting trends in a rapidly expanding market. Ron Conway, for example, is known for investing in the “mega trends” of the Internet. Here the assumption is that any business is going to enjoy good growth because the whole sector is expanding.

So if you can demonstrate you have experience and are launching a business in an industry that is rapidly expanding or has little  competition, you will be well on your way to raising your next round.

Last Exit Wall Street: 7 Considerations When Raising Venture Capital

Wall Street

The recent firing of Groupon’s CEO Andrew Mason is a cautionary tale of the increased scrutiny and heightened expectations that come from accessing increasingly larger amounts of investment capital.

If Groupon remained a bootstrapped entity or a business built on the back of funds raised from friends and family, Mason would still be firmly entrenched as founder and Chief Executive. Yet despite his ability to raise over $1 billion of private equity and to build an organization that is worth $5 billion as of this writing, Mason was shown the door.

Thirteen months after raising more than $10 billion in the public markets the board forced Mason out after another dismal financial quarter.

Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde Barrymore

While taking a startup public is a goal most entrepreneurs dream of, the general rule of thumb is the more capital your raise the more control you have to cede and the less tolerance your investors will have of poor financial performance. Investment capital shortens the time it takes to build a business and can give a company much needed credibility and even publicity, however, a founder should carefully weigh these seven considerations before bringing on outside investors.

1. What is your exit strategy? Contemplating an exit might be the furthest thought from a founder’s mind when launching his business, but the question should be addressed when seeking funding. An investor wants to know when they will be getting their money back and how much of a return they should expect. While taking a company public typically generates the largest return for an investor, most businesses will need to generate in excess of $100 million in revenues in order to justify the on going regulatory and filing costs a publicly traded company incurs. The fact is most start-ups that generate a positive return for their investors are acquired by corporations or financial institutions and the average time it takes a VC to make a return on their investment is more than eight years. So, whether an entrepreneur raises money or not, they have to have a long-term vision. By this measure, Groupon was by no means your typical start-up.

2. What is the company’s use of proceeds? Whether your investors set an established milestone or not you should have a clear idea of where your company currently stands in its growth phase and what it has to accomplish once the investment has been raised. Whether it is launching a website, developing a minimum viable product, making strategic acquisitions or building out your sales team the founder must have a firm understanding of what it is they want to accomplish, the value it will create and how long the milestone will take to accomplish.

3. Is outside capital really required? As a founder do you want to risk being ousted by your investor for failing to live up to their financial targets? Are you passionate about running the day to day operations of your company and the challenge of growing your business? If so then you might be better off growing organically and living without the headaches the added scrutiny outside investors bring. Many institutional investors hold the belief that founders don’t have the required skill sets, experience or temperament to run a company generating more than $10 million, let alone a publicly traded company. Such institutions will insist on recruiting a seasoned veteran as a condition of their investment and there are many investors who would point to Groupon’s Mason as a case in point.

4. Does your business model scale? Many service businesses or eTailers can quickly grow to five or ten million in revenues but struggle to expand further. These limitations can frustrate investors who will need to see continued rapid growth in order to realize the returns they had been hoping for – typically five to ten times their money in five years. Failing to sustain growth will force investors to make changes at the top that will ultimately result in replacing the CEO whether he is the founder or not. Having a model that can sustain this growth will impact the type of investor you can attract and the amount of money you can raise.

5. Who should you approach, “friends and family”, passive investors or value added institutions? At Kluge the advice we give to our clients who are raising capital for the first time is to treat the exercise as they did when they first began to generate sales. Start with your friends and family and then move beyond that sphere of influence to wider circles of investors. An entrepreneur who has never raised money will have no choice but to ask the people who know and trust him or her the most. Money raised from friends and family typically come with few constraints and very simple terms. It can give you a foundation from which to launch, but usually requires subsequent rounds of capital from larger investment sources. Groupon raised seven series of private equity before going public. Wealth family officers, who manage family trust funds, are often seen as being passive investors. These fund sources may have a general industry or geographic preference, but will not necessarily place many restrictions on how a business is managed. They will require proof of a successful track record; the absence of which will make it hard to tap that source of funding. Institutional Investors, whether they be accelerators like Amplify, venture shops like Anthem Venture Partners, or even a super angel investor like Ron Conway’s Silicon Valley Angel bring tremendous value beyond the money they put into a company. Besides capital they also bring experience, industry expertise and an extensive and influential network that can quickly raise a company to the next level. Institutions are more likely to punish you for poor performance, but can open a lot of doors and shorten your growth cycle tremendously.

6. Can you afford the distraction? Raising outside funding is a huge distraction that will divert you from the day to day operations. Everyone is busy and pressed for time so when reaching out to investors make sure you do your homework and understand an institution’s investment criteria before sitting down with them. Often securing a meeting a can be a challenge unless you know somebody who can make a warm introduction. Most investors will be interested to learn what you are bringing to market, but their focus will be on your sales traction. The request to “come back in 6 months when you have more traction” is one heard by most startups raising money for the first time. The trick is to build a sense of urgency and an indication that the round is about to close and the investor will miss out if they don’t act quickly. Plan on at least three to six months of continuous meetings and pitch book revisions, if all goes well, and much longer if it does not.

7. Can you afford the delay? If you have a business that can be easily replicated like Groupon or Pink Berry there will be a huge early mover advantage that can easily be lost if you don’t raise the capital to grow and dominate your sector. Of course as Facebook and even Microsoft has shown, being first does not ensure success. The momentum Groupon gained enabled them to grow into a multi-billion juggernaut that at its core was living off the back of local merchants promoting a daily deal. If Mr. Mason didn’t raise all the outside capital on his way to Groupon’s IPO there is a good chance he would be out of business anyway, in what is now a very competitive and crowded market. While Mason might be out of a job he has walked away with over $18 million in his jeans and he still owns more than 7% of the company which is currently worth over $260 million, which is not bad for a 32 year old music graduate.

A novice entrepreneur sets out on a journey with a dream to see his or her unique solution to a problem become a reality in the market place. They have little understanding of the innumerable obstacles that must be overcome in order for that vision to enjoy widespread adoption. While an outside cash infusion can take care of numerous problems facing a fledgling business the investors will have different incentives, a different risk tolerance and must answer to different steak holders. A fuller understanding of the ramifications and complexity an outside investment brings to a startup can better help the founder find the right financial partner, minimizing the distraction and maximizing the benefits so that they can get back to the enormous challenge of growing their business as quickly and effortlessly as possible.